Alright, let's talk about Elon Musk's new pay package. A trillion dollars is the headline number, the one that's plastered across every tech blog and news site. But anyone who's spent five minutes looking at Tesla's financials knows that number is, shall we say, optimistic. It’s a theoretical maximum based on hitting targets that are, frankly, detached from reality. We're talking about a sixfold increase in Tesla's market value, a million robo-taxis, and an "enormous robot army."
Musk's track record with deadlines isn't exactly stellar. The article mentions his robo-taxi service, slated for a million vehicles by 2020; the reality is fewer than 200 in 2025. Cybertruck sales are also way off. He promised 250,000 per year, but has only delivered fewer than 70,000. (These numbers come directly from Tesla's investor reports, by the way.) It's a pattern: grand pronouncements followed by… well, less grand results.
The question is, why does this pattern persist? The article touches on it: Musk makes grand claims, generates excitement, raises capital, and then replaces the old claims with newer, grander ones when the initial promises fall flat. It's a cycle, and it seems to work, at least for now. But here’s the critical point: his compensation package hinges on actual results, not just hype. He needs to hit those targets to get the big payout. So, how likely is that?
To get that trillion-dollar payout, Tesla needs to become an $8.5 trillion company. Nvidia, a leader in the AI space, briefly nudged past $5 trillion. Tesla, a car company with some interesting side projects, needs to surpass that by a significant margin. And it needs to do it while facing increasing competition in the EV market and the expiration of tax credits that previously boosted sales. Seems like a tall order.
The article makes an interesting point about Tesla's shareholders. It divides them into two camps: the Musk fans who've bought into the cult of personality and those who recognize the pitfalls but see Musk as their best bet for keeping the stock price up. This is where things get interesting. Most investors care more about stock price than the underlying business. Tesla is a midsize car company, but its market cap is higher than all its top rivals combined. It’s wildly overvalued.
Tesla's stock price, as the author puts it, is like a balloon: it falls when deprived of hot air. And for many shareholders, Musk's promises, however unrealistic, are the source of that hot air. They doubt he can deliver, but they also know someone will believe him, and that's enough to keep the stock afloat. This creates a perverse incentive: shareholders are incentivized to support Musk's overpromising, even if they know it's unlikely to lead to actual results.
I've looked at hundreds of these SEC filings, and this particular proxy statement is unusual. The targets are so aggressive, so aspirational, that they almost feel like a dare. It's as if the board is saying, "Okay, Elon, you want a trillion dollars? Here's what you have to do. Now go do it." But the more I dig into the numbers, the more it seems like a performance—a show designed to keep the stock price inflated, regardless of whether the underlying business can actually support it.
The article also mentions Billie Eilish calling out Musk for his wealth and lack of humanitarian efforts. It's a sentiment echoed by many, including author Joyce Carol Oates. Musk's response to Oates ("You are a taker, not a maker") is telling. It reveals a worldview where wealth is justified by creation, regardless of the social impact. But the question is, what kind of creation are we talking about? Is it creating value for society, or simply creating wealth for oneself? Billie Eilish Curses Out Prospective Trillionaire Elon Musk
The trillion-dollar figure is a mirage, a narrative designed to keep the Tesla stock price inflated. The targets are so unrealistic that they serve more as a marketing tool than as actual, achievable goals. And the shareholders, caught between their faith in Musk and the financial reality of Tesla's business, are willing to play along, at least for now. It's a high-stakes game, and the only question is how long it can last before the balloon finally pops.
